{"id":234301,"date":"2025-08-19T05:18:14","date_gmt":"2025-08-19T04:18:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/neuscorp.com\/index.php\/2025\/08\/19\/stocks-remain-stable-as-bond-yields-increase\/"},"modified":"2025-08-19T05:18:14","modified_gmt":"2025-08-19T04:18:14","slug":"stocks-remain-stable-as-bond-yields-increase","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/neuscorp.com\/index.php\/2025\/08\/19\/stocks-remain-stable-as-bond-yields-increase\/","title":{"rendered":"Stocks Remain Stable as Bond Yields Increase"},"content":{"rendered":"

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The\u00a0S&P 500 Index ($SPX<\/a>) (SPY) on Monday closed down by -0.01%,\u00a0the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI<\/a>)\u00a0(DIA) closed down by -0.08%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX<\/a>) (QQQ) closed up by +0.01%.\u00a0 September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25<\/a>) fell -0.03%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25<\/a>) fell -0.02%.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Stock indexes on Monday settled little changed, pressured by higher bond yields.\u00a0 Last Thursday\u2019s bearish July PPI reported dampened speculation that the Fed could cut interest rates as soon as next month\u2019s FOMC meeting.\u00a0 The 10-year T-note yield rose to a 2-week high Monday at 4.35% and finished up +2 bp to 4.34%.<\/p>\n

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Stocks were also weighed down by uncertainty regarding Monday\u2019s meeting between European leaders and Ukrainian President Zelenskiy with President Trump in Washington to discuss potential terms to end the Russian-Ukrainian war.\u00a0 The outcome could have macroeconomic implications regarding tariffs and oil prices, and could, of course, have significant consequences for European security.\u00a0In addition, concerns about how consumers are holding up in the early days of President Trump\u2019s tariffs also weighed on stocks ahead of earnings results this week from some of the biggest US retailers, including Walmart, Target, and Home Depot.<\/p>\n

Monday\u2019s US economic news was negative for stocks after the Aug NAHB housing market index unexpectedly fell -1 to 32, weaker than expectations of an increase to 34.<\/p>\n

The focus of the markets this week will be on any new tariff news and signs of progress toward a Ukraine peace deal, with Ukrainian President Zelenskiy and European leaders meeting President Trump in Washington on Monday. \u00a0On Tuesday, Jul housing starts are expected to fall -1.6% m\/m to 1.300 million, and Jul building permits are expected to fall -0.4% m\/m to 1.388 million.\u00a0On Wednesday, the minutes of the July 29-30 FOMC meeting will be released.\u00a0 On Thursday, weekly initial unemployment claims are expected to climb by +1,000 to 225,000 and the Aug Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey is expected to fall to 6.7 from 15.9 in July.\u00a0 Also, the Aug S&P manufacturing PMI is expected to remain unchanged at 49.8.\u00a0 In addition, Jul existing home sales are expected to fall -0.3% m\/m to 3.92 million.\u00a0On Friday, Fed Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook at the Federal Reserve\u2019s annual symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Regarding tariffs, President Trump said last Friday, \u201cI\u2019ll be setting tariffs next week and the week after on steel and on, I would say chips \u2013 chips and semiconductors, we\u2019ll be setting sometime next week, week after.\u201d Mr. Trump last week said he planned a 100% tariff on semiconductors but would exempt companies that move chip manufacturing to the US.\u00a0 Mr. Trump also mentioned 200% or 300% tariffs on chips.<\/p>\n

In other recent tariff news, Mr. Trump last Tuesday extended the tariff truce with China for another 90 days until November.\u00a0 On August 6, Mr. Trump announced that he will double tariffs on US imports from India to 50% from the current 25% tariff, due to India\u2019s purchases of Russian oil.\u00a0 On August 5, Mr. Trump said that US tariffs on pharmaceutical imports would be announced \u201cwithin the next week or so.\u201d According to Bloomberg Economics, the average US tariff will rise to 15.2% if rates are implemented as announced, up from 13.3% earlier, and significantly higher than the 2.3% in 2024 before the tariffs were announced.<\/p>\n

Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 84% at the September 16-17 FOMC meeting, down from 93% last Thursday.\u00a0 The markets are discounting the chances at 51% for a second -25 bp rate cut at the following meeting on October 28-29.<\/p>\n

Earnings reports indicate that S&P 500 earnings for Q2 are on track to rise +9.1% y\/y, much better than the pre-season expectations of +2.8% y\/y and the most in four years, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. \u00a0With over 92% of S&P 500 firms having reported Q2 earnings, about 82% of companies exceeded profit estimates.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Overseas stock markets on Monday settled mixed.\u00a0 The Euro Stoxx 50 closed down -0.26%. \u00a0China\u2019s Shanghai Composite rallied to a 10-year high and closed up +0.85%. \u00a0Japan\u2019s Nikkei Stock 225 rallied to a new record high and closed up +0.77%.<\/p>\n

Interest Rates<\/strong><\/p>\n

September 10-year T-notes (ZNU2<\/a>5) Monday closed down -2.5 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield rose +2.0 bp to 4.336%.\u00a0 Sep T-notes fell to a 2-week low on Monday, and the 10-year T-note yield rose to a 2-week high of 4.351%.\u00a0 T-notes are under pressure on concern that last week\u2019s bearish US July CPI and PPI reports could keep the Fed from cutting interest rates at next month\u2019s FOMC meeting.<\/p>\n

Losses in T-notes were limited after Monday\u2019s news showed the Aug NAHB housing market index unexpectedly declined.\u00a0 T-notes are also supported by an increase in safe-haven demand after there was no breakthrough in the Trump-Putin summit last Friday to end the war in Ukraine.\u00a0<\/p>\n

European government bond yields on Monday were mixed.\u00a0 The 10-year German bund yield fell -2.5 bp to 2.763%.\u00a0The 10-year UK gilt yield rose to a 2.5-month high of 4.748% and finished up by +4.2 bp to 4.738%.<\/p>\n

Swaps are discounting the chances at 5% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the September 11 policy meeting.<\/p>\n

US Stock Movers<\/strong><\/p>\n

Natural gas producing stocks retreated Monday after Roth Capital Partners downgraded the sector on concerns that oversupply will keep prices depressed.\u00a0 EQT Corp (EQT) closed down more than -4% to lead losers in the S&P 500.\u00a0 Also, Comstock Resources (CRK) closed down more than -6%, and Antero Resources (AR) closed down more than -5%.\u00a0 In addition, Corterra Energy (CTRA) and Range Resources (RRC) closed down more than -3%, and Expand Energy (EXE) closed down more than -2%.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Intel (INTC) closed down more than -3% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 after Bloomberg reported that the Trump administration is in discussions to take a 10% stake in the company, a move that would make the US government the company\u2019s largest shareholder.<\/p>\n

Meta Platforms (META) closed down more than -2% after the Information newsletter reported that the company is planning the fourth restructuring of its AI organization in the last six months.<\/p>\n

Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) closed down more than -2% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to underweight from equal weight.<\/p>\n

Paramount Skydance (PSKY) closed down more than -1% after Walleye Capital LLC reported a net short position in the stock of 5.43 million shares, or 0.51% of the total shares as of last Friday.<\/p>\n

Dayforce (DAY) closed up more than +25% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after Bloomberg reported that Thoma Bravo is in talks to acquire the company.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Duolingo (DUOL) closed up more than +12% after Citigroup initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of buy and a price target of $400.<\/p>\n

EPAM Systems (EPAM) closed up more than +4% after TD Cowen upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $205.\u00a0<\/p>\n

CVS Health (CVS) closed up more than +2% after UBS upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $79.<\/p>\n

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) closed up more than +1% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones industrials, adding to last Friday\u2019s +11% rally, after a 13F filing showed that Warren Buffett\u2019s Berkshire Hathaway and other investors bought shares in the company during Q2.<\/p>\n

Earnings Reports(8\/19\/2025)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Amer Sports Inc (AS), Home Depot Inc\/The (HD), Jack Henry & Associates Inc (JKHY), James Hardie Industries PLC (JHX), Keysight Technologies Inc (KEYS), Medtronic PLC (MDT), Toll Brothers Inc (TOL), Viking Holdings Ltd (VIK).<\/p>\n


\n On the date of publication,<\/p>\n

Rich Asplund<\/a><\/p>\n

did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes.<\/p>\n

For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy<\/p>\n

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p>\n

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Source link The\u00a0S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Monday closed down by -0.01%,\u00a0the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI)\u00a0(DIA) closed down by -0.08%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up by +0.01%.\u00a0 September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) fell -0.03%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) fell -0.02%.\u00a0 Stock indexes on Monday settled little changed, …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-234301","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/neuscorp.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/234301"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/neuscorp.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/neuscorp.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neuscorp.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neuscorp.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=234301"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/neuscorp.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/234301\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/neuscorp.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=234301"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neuscorp.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=234301"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neuscorp.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=234301"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}