The Nifty and the Sensex have gained 9.5 per cent since last Diwali (Samvat 2079), which is a reasonable return in uncertain circumstances. Smaller indices have done better. The NSE 500 is up by over 12 per cent and the Smallcap index is up 40 per cent. India continues to be the fastest growing large economy.
This is hardly cause for celebration, however, since a combination of weak growth, high inflation, and geopolitical stress has affected growth across the globe.
In Samvat 2080, the political equation guarantees stock-market volatility until mid-May 2024. However, bigger drivers for markets could be global factors, such as global growth, peaking of and possible reversal of the interest rate cycle in advanced economies, and geopolitics. An escalation in West Asia could lead to significant volatility in all asset classes.
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